1. Data: life expectancy for 217 countries
Our baseline is life expectancy at birth, separately for males and females, from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (2024 figures). We also use each country’s under-5 mortality rate, because in countries where many young children die, life expectancy at birth understates how long adults live.
If your country isn’t listed, you can choose “Other / not listed” and the world average is used (men 71.1, women 76.0 years). We refresh the data every year when the World Bank publishes new figures.
2. From life expectancy to a survival curve
A single average isn’t enough to answer “how long will I live?” — we need the chance of dying at every age. For adults, that chance follows a remarkably regular pattern first described by Benjamin Gompertz in 1825: after about age 30, the yearly risk of death roughly doubles every 6–7 years. We use the Gompertz–Makeham form:
risk of death at age x = A + B × eb·x
- A = 0.0005 — a small background risk (accidents, infections) that doesn’t depend on age.
- b = 0.11 — how fast risk grows with age. This value reproduces published survival to 90 and 100 in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan within a few percentage points.
- B — solved separately for every country and sex so that the curve gives exactly the World Bank life expectancy, after accounting for child deaths.
Then we start the curve at your current age. Someone who has already reached 60 has, by definition, survived all the risks before 60, so their expected age at death is higher than the life expectancy of a newborn.
3. Adjusting for your health and habits
Each answer multiplies your yearly risk of death by a factor taken from large studies. Published relative risks compare people with a habit to a “best” reference group (for example, never-smokers). But a country’s life expectancy already includes smokers, inactive people and so on, so we rescale each factor so that a typical population mix comes out at about 1.0. A value under 1.0 means lower risk than average; above 1.0 means higher.
Smoking
| Answer | Published relative risk | Used in model |
|---|---|---|
| Never smoked | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Used to smoke | 1.30 | 0.98 |
| Yes, under 10 a day | 1.80 | 1.36 |
| Yes, 10–19 a day | 2.30 | 1.74 |
| Yes, 20 or more a day | 2.80 | 2.11 |
Source: Jha P, et al. 21st-Century Hazards of Smoking and Benefits of Cessation in the United States. N Engl J Med. 2013;368:341–350. Link
Alcohol
| Answer | Published relative risk | Used in model |
|---|---|---|
| None | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| 1–7 drinks | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| 8–14 drinks | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| 15–28 drinks | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| More than 28 drinks | 1.50 | 1.44 |
Source: Wood AM, et al. Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599,912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies. Lancet. 2018;391:1513–1523. Link
Exercise
| Answer | Published relative risk | Used in model |
|---|---|---|
| Almost none | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 hours | 0.80 | 0.99 |
| 2.5–5 hours | 0.69 | 0.86 |
| More than 5 hours | 0.62 | 0.77 |
Source: Arem H, et al. Leisure Time Physical Activity and Mortality: A Detailed Pooled Analysis of the Dose-Response Relationship. JAMA Intern Med. 2015;175(6):959–967. Link
Sleep
| Answer | Published relative risk | Used in model |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 6 hours | 1.12 | 1.08 |
| 6–9 hours | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| More than 9 hours | 1.30 | 1.25 |
Source: Cappuccio FP, et al. Sleep duration and all-cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies. Sleep. 2010;33(5):585–592. Link
Diabetes
| Answer | Published relative risk | Used in model |
|---|---|---|
| No | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Yes | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| Not sure | — | 1.00 |
Source: Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Diabetes mellitus, fasting glucose, and risk of cause-specific death. N Engl J Med. 2011;364:829–841. Link
Body weight (BMI)
Calculated from your height and weight. If you leave them empty, weight has no effect on your result.
| BMI band | Published relative risk | Used in model |
|---|---|---|
| Underweight (BMI under 18.5) | 1.51 | 1.31 |
| Lean (BMI 18.5–20) | 1.13 | 0.98 |
| Healthy weight (BMI 20–25) | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| Slightly overweight (BMI 25–27.5) | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Overweight (BMI 27.5–30) | 1.20 | 1.04 |
| Obesity class I (BMI 30–35) | 1.45 | 1.26 |
| Obesity class II (BMI 35–40) | 1.94 | 1.69 |
| Obesity class III (BMI 40+) | 2.76 | 2.40 |
Source: Global BMI Mortality Collaboration. Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents. Lancet. 2016;388:776–786. Link
Combining the factors
- Effects shrink with age. Relative risks from smoking, weight and similar factors are strongest in middle age. We apply the full effect up to 60, then reduce it gradually to half by age 90.
- Overlapping risks are capped. Many risks overlap — obesity and diabetes, smoking and drinking — so simply multiplying them would exaggerate. We combine them on a logarithmic scale and smoothly limit the total to between 0.35× and 6× the average risk, in line with large cohort studies of combined lifestyle factors.
4. What your result means
| Death date | Your date of birth plus your expected (average) lifespan. |
|---|---|
| Likely range | The 25th to 75th percentile of age at death: half of people with your answers die within it. |
| Chance of reaching 80, 90, 100 | The share of people with your answers who are still alive at that age. |
| Average for your age | The same calculation with every habit set to the population average. |
| What’s shaping your estimate | For each answer: your estimate minus the estimate with that answer set to average. |
| Ways to add years | Your estimate recalculated with one realistic change (for example, from smoking to having quit). |
5. Limitations
We want you to trust this tool for the right reasons, so here is what it cannot do:
- It cannot predict the death of an individual. It describes averages for people with similar answers.
- It leaves out many things that matter: family history, income, education, blood pressure, cholesterol, mental health, diet quality, occupation and access to healthcare.
- Life expectancy figures describe today’s death rates. Future medical progress — or new crises — will change them.
- Most studies behind the risk factors were done in Europe, North America and East Asia. Effects may differ elsewhere.
- Answers are self-reported, and habits change over time.
This tool is for information and entertainment. It is not medical advice. For a real assessment of your health, talk to a doctor.
What we don’t do
- We don’t use random numbers or “secret formulas”.
- We don’t claim artificial intelligence or a percentage accuracy — honest uncertainty is shown as the likely range instead.
- We don’t send or store your answers. The calculation runs in your browser.
Change log
- October 2026 — The death clock is now available in Spanish, Portuguese, German, French and Arabic.
- October 2026 — Added a Hindi version, a death age calculator, a “When will I die?” quiz, “How will I die?”, a days alive calculator, life in weeks and life-expectancy pages for every country. All calculators use the method on this page.
- October 2026 — Calculator rebuilt from scratch with World Bank 2024 data, a calibrated survival model and published risk factors. Added likely range, chances of reaching 80/90/100 and personalised suggestions.
All sources
- World Bank, World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth by sex (SP.DYN.LE00.MA.IN, SP.DYN.LE00.FE.IN) and under-5 mortality (SH.DYN.MORT). Link
- Jha P, et al. 21st-Century Hazards of Smoking and Benefits of Cessation in the United States. N Engl J Med. 2013;368:341–350. Link
- Global BMI Mortality Collaboration. Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents. Lancet. 2016;388:776–786. Link
- Wood AM, et al. Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599,912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies. Lancet. 2018;391:1513–1523. Link
- Arem H, et al. Leisure Time Physical Activity and Mortality: A Detailed Pooled Analysis of the Dose-Response Relationship. JAMA Intern Med. 2015;175(6):959–967. Link
- Cappuccio FP, et al. Sleep duration and all-cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies. Sleep. 2010;33(5):585–592. Link
- Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Diabetes mellitus, fasting glucose, and risk of cause-specific death. N Engl J Med. 2011;364:829–841. Link
- Gompertz B. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality. Philos Trans R Soc Lond. 1825;115:513–583. Extended by Makeham WM (1860). Link
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